The days are short, the weather is cold and the cheery holiday atmosphere is in the air! As we come to an end of the air, we must look at the housing market as well! Like all winter seasons, this one has similarities that show that the winter is here. The inventory has gotten low and with the low interest rates, the market is showing signs of a seller’s market in most areas. However, the average absorption rate for the Northern Virginia is at 5.7 months, which is considered a “normal market.”
As always, I calculate the absorption rate for the DC Metro Area. These numbers are the calculation of the supply and demand of real estate inventory. So, what do these numbers mean? Typically, if absorption rate is 5-7 months, it is considered “normal market.” If it’s below 5, it’s a “sellers market” and if it’s above 7, then it’s a “buyers market.” The percentage indicates how the market has improved (↑) or declined (↓) compared to last month.
Absorption rate is calculated by dividing the total number of active and pending listings by the number of homes sold in a month. The resulting answer let’s us know how many months it will take to sell the entire inventory of homes. I love numbers and have started to calculate the absorption rate for the , more specifically, I will be focusing on Northern Virginia since that’s my area of expertise and state of licensure.
The numbers used for my calculations are from MRIS MLS and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Remember, real estate is local so here are the absorption rates for last month in Northern Virginia:
|City of Alexandria – 3.4 mos (↑42.5%)
Arlington County – 2.7 mos (↑29.1%)
Clarke County – 8.3 mos (↓30.8%)
Fairfax County – 3.6 mos (↑28.6%)
City of Fairfax – 5.8 mos (↓26.5%)
City of Falls Church – 2.0 mos (↑73.1%)
Fauqier County – 7.1 mos (↑8.3%)
Frederick County – 6.8 mos (↑4.0%)
|City of Fredericksburg – 10.6 mos (↓22.7%)
Loudoun County – 4.8 mos (↑19.6%)
City of Manassas – 3.6 mos (↑5.3%)
City of Manassas Park – 3.4 mos (↑187.3%)
Prince William County – 4.5 mos (↑8.6%)
Spotsylvania County – 5.7 months (↑15.2%)
Stafford County – 7.3 mos (↓9.7%)
Warren County – 11.2 mos (↓9.4%)
So if you’re a seller and want expert advise to list your home or a buyer and want to roam around to find your next home, call me today at 703-577-4320!